Latest Gallup polls bodes poorly for the Kerry campaign. Money quote:
In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and John Edwards trailed the Republican ticket of Bush and Dick Cheney 50% to 46% among likely voters, with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 2%.
. . .
The change in support was within the poll’s margin of error of /- 4 percentage points in the sample of 763 likely voters. But it was nonetheless a stunning result, the first time in the Gallup Poll since the 1972 Democratic convention that a candidate seemed to lose ground at his convention.
The article also says a “News”week poll gives the Dems a 4 point up tick. I think the analysts are correct, the intensely polarized electorate gives little room for either candidate to gain more points. I doubt Bush will get much of a bounce either at the GOP convention.